Tilray: Overvalued & Volatile

Tilray was halted five times on Wednesday for volatility on the NASDAQ, briefly touching $300 and a market cap of $14.4B, Grace Dobush of Fortune reported. CEO of Tilray Brendan Kennedy told Jim Cramer he hoped the company would one day be worth $100B.

Volatility in the stock market can be described as the tendency of a security to rise sharply and fall rapidly in a short period of time. Volatility is based on the standard deviation of the return on investment. Standard deviation is the amount of variation to be expected.

Volatile markets are usually characterized by large price fluctuations and significant trading. Some blame volatility on day trading and short selling, others blame press releases, or analyst reports.

In the case of Tilray, high demand for scarce shares could be playing a big role in astronomical stock prices and increasing volatility.

While Tilray has an unreasonable amount of investment, Tilray’s infrastructure and strategy are questionable. Tilray’s primary focus has been on the highly competitive medical field, however Tilray has not had any products for the treatment of medical disorders or diseases approved. Even the deal to import cannabis to the US is at risk of competition and will take years to come into fruition.

According to AllStarTrader of Seeking Alpha, retail level investment and share scarcity combined with market enthusiasm is driving up Tilray stock unnaturally. The revenues and earnings don’t support the skyrocketing prices. And the potential for the company also leaves much to be desired.

AllStarTrader dissuades investors from risking a potential short term, high margin investment, the gamble may not pay off. With the current market estimated to be worth $10.82B, Tilray is operating at 170% of the entire available domestic market.

Tilray is estimated to be worth CA$21B, now worth more than MAGNA, an international industrial car parts manufacturer.

In July, with $153 million and $17 shares Tilray became the first cannabis IPO to begin trading on the NASDAQ. In the last six months the company has reported $17M in sales and $18M in losses.

Dan McCrum told the Financial Times, “Any attempt to sell all the shares, or even to dump large amounts of them, we suspect, would cause the valuation to collapse”

With such a small selection of cannabis stocks on the NASDAQ heavy investment and volatility are projected. Tilray retail investors are buying stock at almost any price. One analyst compared buying cannabis stock to buying air.

Amanda Lang of BNN Bloomberg warns investors that Tilray’s volatility should be a reminder to be cautious when buying cannabis stocks, calling Tilray, “A money losing cannabis company.” Take a look at her take away below.

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